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TRU Long-range supply-demand forecast for global lithium 2020 :Slide Show below Presentation Lithium Supply & Markets IM Conference 2011 Toronto - Buenos Aires 2012 |
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TRU Group Inc supply-demand forecast - global lithium industry conference - January 2012 Buenos Aires Details |
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LITHIUM SUPPLY & MARKETS JAN 2012 INDUSTRIAL MINERALS CONFERENCE BUENOS AIRES |
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TRU Group Inc, Toronto ON, Tucson USA, January 17, 2012 - Lithium Demand Recovers but Lithium Prices Stagnate year-end 2011. Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says its lithium price forecast 2011 has been affirmed. On reviewing price trends TRU found that prices stagnated 2011 despite reasonable growth in global demand for lithium chemicals. In its January 2011 presentation president Edward R Anderson had said “Lithium carbonate prices came down to below $4500 per t in 2010 and in our forecast will remain around this level for some time”. In fact the new data shows that the average price of lithium carbonate for 2011 was unchanged over 2010 at US$4,300 t and there was little sign of upward pressure entering 2012. Basic lithium chemical prices are being kept in check mainly by over-supply – a situation which TRU says will be exacerbated through 2020 as a number of new pipeline projects come on stream and the existing dominating low cost South American producers SQM, FMC and Rockwood (Chemetall-SCL) expand. Mr Anderson said: “It is pretty difficult for any producer, large or small, to increase prices in the current or projected environment. Customers are clearly resisting price increases now and will likely continue to do so. Those producers attempting to raise prices risk losing customers to competitors”. Now in January 2012 there is stronger evidence than ever that the lithium industry will experience stable prices long term. :Buenos Aires IM 2012 details and :More statements below
: more on TRU Lithium Team Capability Professional + Independent + Bankable TRU Group Inc, January 18, 2011 - “Lithium Pipeline Projects cannot beat the Existing Lithium Chemical Big Three.” Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says that its updated lithium supply-demand forecast 2020 slideshow has been uploaded to its website trugroup.com. The outlook is shocking. The seemingly unstoppable supply growth will cause such huge overcapacity that the stability of the industry will be threatened. Pipeline projects and expansions could increase capacity by about 40,000 tpy Li-contained in the next decade – double what the industry needs. Existing lithium chemical producers have the in-ground resources and ability to meet nearly all market requirements by expanding capacity. On the lithium chemicals demand side there has been some recovery in 2010 from recent dramatic declines. Demand and prices will continue weak this year. TRU president Edward R Anderson will tell the IM Toronto 3rd Lithium Supply & Markets conference: “Lithium carbonate prices fell precipitately to $4500 per t in 2010 and will remain depressed. Long term there is no market-driven upward-price pressure so prices will remain stable and likely below $5000 per t”. Lower prices and fierce competition through 2020 is bad news for the lithium new project promoters who will find it impossible to compete against the distinctive natural cost advantage of brine-based producers Chemetall-SCL, FMC and SQM. “Only a select few new projects could make it into profitable production and then only as marginal suppliers. Bottom line is if you do have a good resource make sure you also have the strongest possible lithium technical capability to develop it”. TRU’s veteran lithium geologist Dr Ihor I. Kunasz is also presenting. He will explain the technical reasons as to why existing producers have a natural advantage. Ihor Kunasz says: “It’s simple, the existing players have three times the lithium concentration and also reserves that dwarf any of the new players. In addition SQM by far the world’s largest lithium supplier has for many years re-injected excess lithium produed into the Salar de Atacama adding to the lithium resource of the salar”. Kunasz is well known as the geologist who developed the original reserve model at Atacama from whence 60% of the world’s lithium is currently produced. TRU Group Inc, November 5, 2010 – TRU is to present a Lithium Industry Market Balance Update and Technical Paper at Toronto 2011 Conference. “Shocking Future Battering the Lithium Industry through 2020”. Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says that its updated lithium outlook for presentation for the IM Lithium Supply & Markets Conference Toronto 2011 will confirm that the industry suffered severely in the 2009-2010 recession with global demand falling in double-digit percentage terms, pushing prices lower too. Little in the long term, including new use from electric vehicles batteries, will counter the overall lower lithium chemical demand that is now expected. New production capacity coming on stream in the next five years plus advanced pipeline projects that will start-up later will exacerbate imbalance and threaten the stability of the industry. The combined structural effect of a downward shift in demand and idle excess capacity will be felt long term. “Competition through 2020 will be increasingly fierce making it virtually impossible for aspiring lithium businesses to ever turn a profit. Millions of dollars invested in these companies will be lost by unsuspecting investors” said TRU president Edward R Anderson. “Most troubling is that the stock market regulators in the United States and Canada have failed to take appropriate action to protect investors from predictable losses. The widespread misuse of the 43-101 reporting system and the authorship of these reports by so called “Qualified Persons” who are far from it, is worrisome! TRU’s Dr Ihor I. Kunasz will be explaining some of the technical reasons for the industry’s general naïveté. He is well known as the geologist who developed the reserve model at Salar de Atacama from whence sixty per cent of the world’s lithium is currently produced. He also did this assessment for Silver Peak, NV and analyzed most of the competitive brine deposits in the world as Chief Geologist for Foote Mineral Company (now Chemetall Foote Corporation). Since joining TRU he has reviewed the resources of most salars in the world that are of any merit. The title of his presentation will be “Lithium Brines – Extraction Technology vs. Pegmatite Mining” TRU Group Inc, November 9, 2009 - Lithium chemical demand has been hit hard through third quarter 2009 and we envisage a full year decline exceeding 12% over 2008 and weakening lithium chemical prices. Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says that there is no need therefore to update its well publicized January 2009 long range lithium outlook 2020 presented at the IM lithium conference. The next six months will be critical but a recovery is likely soon. The TRU distinctive forecast of lithium use in electric vehicles and lithium use in alloy is also proving correct. The TRU view that global lithium oversupply will persist at minimum through 2013 is affirmed. Output of lithium chemicals through expansion by existing brine-based producers - SQM, FMC, Chemetall and CITIC – and new development projects in the pipeline will assure sufficient lithium supply long range. Additional new medium range production will originate from mineral-based producers in China particularly and likely the Rincon Lithium (salar) of Argentina. We expect at least one new competitive brine producer to be in production within ten years. Lithium Chemicals Price Trend: Dominating lithium producer SQM in September 2009 announced 20% price reductions. Lithium prices have been stagnant through 2009: Given market conditions falling prices were expected but they were superficially bolstered by the steep fall in the US dollar against lithium producer and user currencies. TRU president Edward R Anderson says “the SQM price reduction was a necessary correction and consistent with the TRU lithium over-supply scenario. Indeed, there is little prospect for price volatility even long range. Prevailing lithium carbonate contract transaction prices are much lower than stated by most new project promoters and several (misinformed) analysts. Any new producer must be prepared to meet these lower large volume prices. TRU projects an orderly and balanced development of the lithium industry through the 2020 horizon and this translates to price stability.” TRU Group Inc, January 22, 2009 - Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says that its updated lithium outlook for presentation Tuesday at the IM Lithium Supply & Markets Conference Santiago 2009 will conclude that the industry is not immune from the global recession and will be pushed into oversupply this year through 2013. Global use of lithium will decline sharply by at least 6% in 2009 and demand is unlikely to bounce back any time soon as consumers put off buying laptops or cell phones containing lithium batteries. This is bad news for an industry accustomed to strong sustained growth over many years. TRU president Edward Anderson commented that “an outlook presentation of this type is very unusual for us because all of our work is client confidential. However, Mitsubishi Corporation who commissioned the original analysis has authorized TRU to release some of the material”. The techno-economic analysis and supply-demand forecast is a major in-depth assignment conducted by the TRU Lithium Team made up of the world’s top technical experts on lithium production and extraction on the supply side, as well as our specialized industry analysts on the demand side. Impacts of recent advances in lithium extraction technology (for example, in selective ion adsorption, electrodialysis, and nanofiltration) are considered. It is likely now that some expansions and new projects will be delayed or cancelled until market conditions improve. The long range however remains bright because new and large uses for lithium will start having a major impact on demand within the five year horizon: Lithium use in electric vehicle batteries and lithium alloys for aircraft. TRU forecasts that demand will be strong and sustained in these two segments over the long term 2020. The industry does need at least one of the announced pipeline production projects to come into production and also could do with another new project as the market tightens around 2015-2017. New lithium producers still will need to be cost competitive with existing salt lake brine based producers in South America and China. Emerging technology may make some of the undeveloped medium sized (brine) lithium resources quite attractive. Certainly the industry through expansion and development of new resources will have no problem meeting demand. TRU Group Inc based in Toronto, Canada and Tucson, USA are industrial management and engineering consultants with a strong capability in lithium project development. The firm is a world leader in resource evaluation, salar exploitation, brine & mineral lithium extraction and processing technologies - those in use, prospective, and leading edge. TRU Lithium Team has evaluated and modeled most of the known existing lithium properties and advised a number of players on a wide variety of lithium resource, engineering, process, business and investment issues. TRU Group Inc will present two papers at IM Lithium 2011 Toronto - © "Shocking Future Battering the Lithium Industry through 2020" - by Edward Anderson • The impact of the 2009 recession • Will projects in the pipeline help or hinder the industry? • Updated supply and demand forecast, taking into account the major structural changes taking place • The effect on prices, competition and viability of pipeline projects © "Lithium Brines – Extraction Technology vs. Pegmatite Mining" - by Ihor Kunasz • Why the production of lithium chemicals from brines must be tailored to the specific chemical composition, hydrogeology, hydrology and pond design of each salar • Comparison of the economics of lithium chemicals from pegmatite sources with those of brines • Review of the constraints that existing brine producers face and the solutions that have resulted in successful operations LITHIUM SUPPLY & MARKETS 2011 INDUSTRIAL MINERALS CONFERENCE INFORMATION
Date: January
23 - 25, 2012
MAIN CONFERENCE AGENDA ITEMS -
Tuesday 24 January 09:00 Welcome address: Lithium in Argentina • Current exploration activities • Upcoming lithium projects • Government policies, actions and incentives • New regulations and different provinces 09:30 Keynote address: Lithium, the bigger picture Legal and regulatory changes in Chile – what do they mean?
Session I: Lithium supply – established producers consider the market 11:15 FMC – how we see the market 11.45 Talison’s view of the lithium market
Session II: Asian developments in lithium supply/demand 12:15 Thechinese lithium industry & Galaxy’s Jiangsu Project
Session III: Focus on batteries as an end use 14:45 Electric vehicles, e bikes and grid storage – 15:15 External threats to the lithium industry YaronVarona, Technology & Rare Earth Metals (TREM) Center Director, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, USA
Session IV: Developments in the market – who, how and why? 16:15 An Overabundance of Lithium? 16:45 Strategic alliances and their role in lithium raw material supply Luis Saenz, CEO, Li3 Energy, Chile
Session V: Status of emerging producers, both brine and hard rock 09:00 Update on the brine sources Cauchari-Olaroz lithium brine project update Waldo Perez, CEO, Lithium Americas, Argentin
The Sal de Vida Lithium-Potash Brine Project Patrick Highsmith, President COO, Lithium1, Argentina
How the Salar del Rincon has been developed from a deposit into a commercial operation Dr Daniel Galli, Technical Manager, ADY Resources, Argentina
Developing Argentina’s Resources Richard Seville, CEO, Orocobre Ltd, Australia
10:30 Latest news on hard rock deposits Whabouchi Project: Results of the definitive feasibility study Guy Bourassa, CEO, Nemaska Lithium, Canada
12:30 Panel Session: Industry Standards for reporting lithium brine resources/reserves
Session VI: Other factors influencing lithium demand
14:30 The importance of non-battery lithium demand 15:00 Use of lithium nitrate in the solar power generation sector Dr Matthias Uebler, Corporate Technology, Siemens AG, Germany
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Seoul Asia Las Vegas NV USA Lithium Supply & Markets 2010 Conference
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PAST IM Lithium Supply & Markets CONFERENCES Lithium Supply & Markets September 2010 Asia Conference Date: 08 September 2010 - 09 September 2010 Venue: Date: 08 Sep 10 - 09 Sep 10 Venue: Renaissance Hotel Seoul, Seoul, South Korea
Lithium Asia is an exciting new event designed in response to delegate feedback. Taking place in South Korea it will focus on Lithium demand, looking at all the possible areas of growth, including ceramics, glass, electric car batteries, large format grid storage batteries and consumer electronics. Key speakers include: •KC Lim, Chief Technology Officer, Valence Technology, China •Kazuhiro Konba, Automotive Energy Supply Corporation, Japan •Lucie Bednarova, Research & Development, General Motors, USA •Iggy Tan, CEO, Galaxy Resources, Australia •Patrick Highsmith, CEO, Lithium One, USA •Xiaoshen Wang, Managing Director, Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd, China •Jonathan Buick, President & Managing Partner, Harp Capital, Canada •Jon Hykaway, Clean Technologies & Materials Analyst, Byron Capital Markets, Canada Key topics to be discussed at Lithium Asia: •Key demand drivers, including Japan, China and Korea's Li-ion battery industries •Off-take agreements and joint venture partnerships with the West •Strategic importance of lithium supply on the continent: how much will Asia need to import?Introduction In Chile in 2009, IM’s inaugural Lithium Supply & Markets (LSM09) set out explore whether or not there is enough lithium in the world to supply the pending boom from the electric and hybrid car battery markets. With the unprecedented rate of development from the upstream exploration and mining sector and lithium’s end user markets, Lithium Supply & Markets 2010 (LSM10) conference aims to build on the platform created by LSM09 and discuss the following topics: Validity of the most promising emerging lithium supply projects including Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, hectorite clay in Nevada and geothermal sources California
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